Saturday, October 29, 2022

 

EU leaders must increase aid to Ukraine

Now that there are signs that the American willingness to help Ukraine may decrease, it is required that the EU's leaders take a clearly greater responsibility than has been the case so far.

 On Tuesday, November 8, the United States will go to mid-term elections. This year, all 435 members of the House of Representatives and 35 of the hundred senators in the federal Congress are elected. Currently, Democrats hold a few-vote majority in the House of Representatives, while it's 50-50 in the Senate, where Vice President Kamala Harris has the deciding vote. The likely outcome of the congressional elections is that the Republicans will win the majority in the House of Representatives, while it seems to be extremely even once again in the Senate. An outcome in which Republicans win the majority in at least one of the houses will have implications for future US aid to the embattled Ukraine. The likely speaker of the House of Representatives, Kevin McCarthy of California, has already said that President Biden cannot automatically expect that new major aid packages for Ukraine will be approved by his chamber.

 Meanwhile, 30 liberal Democratic members have written a letter, albeit later retracted, arguing that the US president should push for active diplomacy to end the Ukraine war. The implication of such a statement is that Ukraine may find itself making significant concessions regarding its territory in order to end the war. In this situation, there are several signs that the American willingness to help Ukraine in the war against Russia is, if not disappearing, at least clearly decreasing.

 Which countries and organizations have until now been the ones that have given the most help to Ukraine in support of the country's defense against Russia's cruel war of aggression? We find that the total aid promised by the United States during the mentioned period totals roughly 52 billion dollars. If we combine the total commitments from the 27 EU countries individually with the help promised by the EU institutions, we get roughly 29 billion dollars. In other words, the US alone has given, or at least promised, more than $20 billion more in aid to Ukraine, a European country, than Ukraine's European neighbors have. The signals coming from more and more politicians in Washington mean that American support for Ukraine can hardly continue at the same level unless the EU countries' support increases. Why, say these American politicians, should we spend many billions of dollars more on aid to Europe than the Europeans are willing to do to a country in their own continent?

Here, the ability of the EU and the EU countries to act forcefully to save the independence of a European country is tested. After all, it is the European security system that is primarily threatened by President Putin's aggression. Beyond the size of the EU's total financial commitment to Ukraine, there is another problem with EU aid. It refers to budget support, where until the beginning of October the EU only managed to spend barely 30 percent of the promised support, while the corresponding figure for the United States is just over 50 percent.

 If Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine results in a clear loss for Kyiv, or worse, a collapse of the Ukrainian state, the Russian threat to the European security order will continue and worsen. The European leaders are taking on a tremendous responsibility when they delay, or withhold, vital aid to Ukraine. We can illustrate the problem with both the just-departed and the newly-appointed Swedish government's difficulties in deciding to transfer a number of copies of the artillery piece Archer, which the government of Ukraine has repeatedly asked to be delivered. Sweden has access to 48 copies of this system. It is extremely difficult to understand that the military defense of Sweden could not function effectively enough if, say, six of these pieces were transferred to Ukraine in the near future. Perhaps, after further investigations, another six plays can be transferred later. In any case, it is potentially catastrophic for Ukraine's future that mainly European countries delay in this way in delivering weapons systems that could be of absolutely decisive importance for Kiev's combat capabilities in the near term.

 88 years ago, two Western European statesmen - Neville Chamberlain from Great Britain and Édouard Daladier from France - went to Munich, together with Italian dictator Benito Mussolini to discuss the situation in Czechoslovakia with German Führer Adolf Hitler. The gentlemen agreed that part of the independent state of Czechoslovakia – called the Sudetenland by the Germans – would be handed over to Germany. This decision was made above the head of the Czechoslovak government. Chamberlain emphasized when he returned to London after the conference that the parties had negotiated peace for our time.

 A year later, World War II broke out, resulting in tens of millions of deaths. Today's European leaders – led by Emmanuel Macron in France and Olaf Scholz in Germany – have an enormous responsibility to ensure that the Ukraine war does not end with an outcome unacceptable to Kyiv. Dictator Putin in Moscow does not care about any written agreements or treaties, he has already shown that repeatedly regarding Ukraine. In order to stop his attempts to redraw the map of Europe, and thereby undermine the independence of Russia's European neighbors, strong and continued aid to Ukraine is required now and until the war ends on terms acceptable to Ukraine.

 If Putin's military aggression against Ukraine succeeds, Europe's security risks being shaken for decades to come. The EU's leaders must take a significantly greater responsibility for this help in the future than has been the case so far. It is time for the EU and its member states to play a decisive role in solving a crisis that primarily concerns Europe. The traces from 1938 are terrifying, Europe's leaders must take responsibility this time. What may follow if they do not is not a world war, but rather a Europe that risks being dominated by a revanchist Russia.

Todde

Also check:

https://axiom1b.blogspot.com/2022/08/geopolitics-usa-russia-and-china-india.html

No comments:

Post a Comment