Is the world still getting better?

 In the mid-2010s, Hans Rosling became world famous for his hopeful presentations of everything that has steadily improved in the world. But what have the curves looked like since then? If you look more closely at the statistics, you will find many reassuring facts, but also clouds of worry.

 Is the world still getting better? The question may seem strange at a time when most things seem to be going in the opposite direction, but it is worth taking seriously.

 Books about the decline of society and humanity have always come in a steady current. In 2010, the British biologist and science journalist Matt Ridley's book "The rational optimist: How prosperity evolves" came out with a different view.

In 2016, the Swedish writer and liberal social debater Johan Norberg published "Progress: Ten reasons to look forward to the future". Perhaps the most famous is
"Factfulness. Ten tricks that help you understand the world" with the subtitle "Ten reasons we're wrong about the world – and why things are better than you think", by the doctor and public health professor Hans Rosling, published posthumously.

 In for example, the magazine The Economist's review of Norberg's "Progress". Ultimately, of course, it is aquestion of whether the world is getting better, but the indicators that are highlighted are generally uncontroversial. Few find it problematic that poverty decreases while peace, tolerance and democracy increase. The statistics come strikingly often from various UN organisations. This does not mean that there is no measurement error, but it is basically the same statistic that development researchers all over the world use.

 Another common denominator of the books about how to make the world better is that their authors work uphill and have been dismissed as naive. It is difficult to change people's world view. Most people are instinctively pessimistic about the world's development.

 In Rosling's book, the frustration is particularly clear. Despite educational data visualizations and YouTube lectures viewed by millions, Rosling often encountered ignorance and casual attitudes even among highly educated people who worked daily on global development. While Ridley and Norberg are outspoken market liberals, Rosling said he was just relaying the facts. He even protested against the label optimist: "You're not an optimist just because you know that child mortality has fallen faster in recent decades in Bangladesh, Egypt and Brazil than it ever did in Sweden.

 Rosling's apolitical approach made him hard to dismiss. But interestingly enough, it may also have contributed to making it more difficult for many to accept his message. Research indicates that people who are to be persuaded to change their opinion on important issues require more than facts that show they are wrong. An understandable explanation is also needed as to why things are different from what they thought. It may be easy to show with statistics that the world is getting better, but it is more difficult to convincingly explain why this is the case. Unlike Rosling, Ridley and Norberg have in several books presented a coherent narrative about what the positive development depends on: free markets and creative individuals.

 As explanations for human progress, market economy, economic freedom and technological development go a long way. But there are patterns that deviate from that worldview. Prosperous countries with high economic freedom also tend to have high taxes and a large welfare state. Technological development as an explanation for the world becoming better immediately raises questions about where the technological development comes from and what makes the technology used for good purposes.

 Overambitious, many say, but there is nevertheless a common denominator: man's dominance on the planet depends on an outstanding ability to cooperate. Human societies succeed better when there are institutions that promote cooperation. The explanation is fully compatible with Norberg's and Ridley's market friendliness: the division of labor that emerges in the market economy can be advantageously understood as a form of cooperation. But democracy, the rule of law and the welfare state are also institutions that in different ways promote cooperation and thus wealth creation. Perhaps it would be easier to get a voice for the idea that the world is getting better if development is explained as the result of human cooperation.

 A bigger problem is probably that the development of the world in recent years has made the thesis that the world is getting better seem dated, if not out of date. A global virus pandemic, continued global warming, multiple outbreaks of war, the return of inflation and a number of elections with populist successes around the world have created a doomsday feel in news reporting. But if there's one thing we've learned from Hans Rosling, it's that feelings are often contradicted by facts.

 In most cases, there is now another ten years of data for the measures and indicators that Ridley, Norberg and Rosling highlighted. What do we see if the time series are extended? Several metrics continue to improve at a steady pace. The proportion of the world's population with access to drinking water is increasing, from 66 percent in 2010 to 73 percent in 2022. Literacy, too, in 2022 it was higher than ever: 87 percent. For men, the figure is even higher, but the

gender gap is narrowing over time. Infant mortality continues to fall. The curve showing global life expectancy at birth for the world's population is It has increased from 47 in 1950 to 73 in 2023. The increase is strikingly stable, but there are two notches in the curve, one larger than the other. Pause your reading and test yourself: what two events after 1950 have caused significant but temporary drops in the average lifespan on Earth?

 The last hack was in 2020 and was caused by the corona pandemic. The second notch is larger and is visible in 1960 when Mao caused mass starvation in China. Otherwise, people die at increasingly old ages and newborn earthlings are expected to live longer and longer. Life expectancy is not the only indicator that took a beating during the pandemic and then recovered. The proportion of the world's population living in absolute poverty fell until 2020, when it increased significantly. But between 2021 and 2024 it fell back. The latest update came this spring and showed that poverty is falling regardless of whether the poverty line is drawn at two, four or seven dollars a day.

 The World Bank also reports the world's aggregate GDP per capita, adjusted for inflation. This "gross planetary product" fell in 2020, but quickly recovered and in 2023 was the highest ever. More gratifying is that more and more countries are now able to combine growing GDP with decreasing carbon dioxide emissions, even when imports and exports are taken into account. The trend towards increasing intelligence seems to be continuing, largely because better nutrition promotes brain development. The number of murders per capita continues to decrease, both in Europe and globally. Annual deaths from natural disasters are still falling. The trend of more and more countries banning ethnic discrimination in working life continues. At a time when many are sighing over developments in the United States, it may be interesting to know that the percentage of Americans who accept marriages between whites and people of color has increased continuously since surveys began in 1958. In 2021, the figure was the highest ever: 94 percent.

 Many people become skeptical and irritated when statistics about the world getting better are lined up in this way. What do the numbers really say? Have the indicators been selected to fit a certain narrative, while other statistics develop significantly more problematically? For the reader who feels hit, I have a reassuring message: several curves that pointed in the right direction a decade or two ago have stagnated.

 In many respects, the world is now going downhill. Does it feel better? The overview above is a subset of indicators I selected in 2017, when I summarized the message of Ridley, Norberg and Rosling. Why you're wrong about almost everything, yet won't change your mind”. There were 19 points, and as far as the data series then went, everyone was heading in the right direction. Now it's different. The prevalence of malnutrition increased during the pandemic, and there is no reduction in the data yet. The incidence of child labor has stopped falling, and the number of armed conflicts in the world has increased in the last ten years. More conflict does not necessarily mean more deaths, but 2022 was unfortunately the deadliest year since the 1980s. When data from 2023 and 2024 is added, it is unlikely to look any better. It is also disappointing that the percentage of people living in democracy is in a downward trend, and even if more countries manage to increase GDP without emitting more carbon dioxide emissions, both total carbon dioxide content and global average temperature are going in the wrong direction. The world is still getting richer and healthier, but it is also getting hotter, more violent and less democratic.

 The sad thing about this is that if violence and dictatorship spread, the institutions that promote human cooperation are threatened. Then even more prosperity curves will turn downward. The 2020s will probably be a worse decade for the genre of books about the world getting better.

ATTENTION! PS. The overpopulation problem is also forgotten in this contex

Todde

Also check:

https://axiom1b.blogspot.com/2024/01/the-earths-nature-is-being-ravaged-by.html

 Give Africa a chance to develope

 Africa's population will increase dramatically and more will continue to make their way to Europe. But with education there are ways to contribute to creating other conditions, write representatives of the organization Alef.

  According to forecasts, Africa's population will double by the year 2050. The number of people trying to escape to Europe from a hopeless life situation in their home country may multiply. In that case, it is not enough to have border guards and effective asylum screening.

  It is possible to take preventive measures to lift people out of poverty. Both humanitarian and economic reasons suggest that this is the right way to go. The EU election that took place was in many ways a reaction to immigration pressure from Africa. Walls and borders were keywords in the election campaign. The debate pointed to all these young men who seek Europe from a hopeless existence in their home countries. They rarely have valid reasons for asylum but are attracted by the dream of a tolerable life on our continent.

 Every year, large numbers of them drown in the Mediterranean. A humanitarian disaster that rarely makes headlines. The political response to the problem has been tighter border control, effective asylum screening and a rapid return of people without a valid reason for asylum to their home countries. But don't we need to look up and broaden the analysis? Everything points to the fact that immigration pressure will increase drastically. An underlying problem is population growth in Africa. While much of the world's population is stagnating, Africa's population is projected to double in the next 25 years. Of the eight countries in the world that will account for more than half of the population increase until 2050, five are in Africa. Nigeria is expected to overtake the United States in population. We are facing an incredibly dramatic demographic change. The consequence is obvious: More and more desperate Africans will seek a future in Europe. The number of small boats multiplies. Tens of thousands of people will drown in the Mediterranean with their longing for a more dignified life. Dealing with this increased migration pressure may become the dominant challenge for Europe in the coming decades.

  Regardless of one's view of migration, it should be clear to everyone that measures to increase border control will not be enough to deal with this challenge. As in other policy areas, preventive efforts are also needed. We need to look up and see what we can do to change the life situation these people are fleeing in the long term. A clear focus is needed on constructive efforts for lasting change, which are not squandered in bureaucracy and corruption. The positive message is that this is possible to do.

  A key issue is education. In 2024, it is estimated that 773 million people in the world will lack the ability to read, write and count. We find a significant percentage of these in Africa. Two thirds are women. In ten African countries, more than a quarter of the inhabitants are illiterate.

  In many African countries, a third of all children leave school before grade five. When women (above all) and men acquire basic reading skills, much changes both in their living conditions and in the surrounding society. They are empowered to change their lives and improve their finances. In doing so, they develop their local communities. Furthermore, they gain the ability to support their children's schooling, which is of great importance in the long term. In addition, they can participate more actively in social life and influence the country's development. We who are writing this have seen this tremendous power of change up close. We are active within Alef, a Swedish organization focused on effective learning of reading, writing and mathematics in one's own mother tongue in African countries. We have thousands of stories about people who created a new future for themselves after completing their education.

  They start their own companies. They can negotiate better business terms. They get a different status and can raise their voice in the local community. They break the negative spiral. They spread hope for a future in their own country. We know that it is possible to create big changes with small funds without either corruption or bureaucracy.

  The paradox is that, in this situation, Europe's governments choose to cut aid to Africa. One motive is that the reception of refugees takes a lot of resources. In Sweden, where there is an extensive restructuring of the aid, an organization like Alef will not receive a penny in government aid starting next year, even though scientific evaluations can confirm the effectiveness of the operation. Instead, we must rely on committed private donors and philanthropic foundations, who understand the developmental power of giving people literacy and thus increased empowerment. They realize the value of efforts for Africa's development that have a lasting effect. We are grateful for that. But at the same time we are frustrated.

  We wish that insight also reached our political decision-makers. We could do so much more! It is about giving people in African countries a future and hope. But it is also about measures that can affect migration to Europe in the long term and on a large scale. It's about looking away from border control and asylum testing and thinking long-term.

Hélène Boëthius founder and chairman, Alef – Adult Learning and Empowerment Facilitators Markus Ask Secretary-General-elect, Alef Bertil Forsberg board member, Alef

Also check:

https://axiom1b.blogspot.com/2021/02/populationgrowth-needs-to-be-slowed.html

and:

https://axiom1b.blogspot.com/2020/07/knowledgeof-history-is-important-part.html

Todd

Quotes by Plato

 

“People are like soil. They can either nourish you and help you grow as a being or they can stunt your growth and let you wither and die.”

 

"The punishment suffered by the wise who refuse to participate in government, is to live under the government of worse men."

 

“It doesn't matter if reincarnation exists and is true. The important thing is to make the people believe that they rerincarnate. Then they will be more willing to take responsibility for ensuring that the state will be better in the future.”

 

“Nothing can be more absurd than the practice which prevails in our country when men and women do not follow the same occupations with all their strength and with one mind. Then the state, instead of being whole, is reduced to half.”

 

“The first and greatest victory is to reclaim your true self. To allow your true self to be conquered by your inferior self (human nature) is the most shameful and abominable thing.”

 

“Wise men speak because they have something to say; fools speak because they have to say something.”

 

"A good decision is based on knowledge and not numbers."

 

"Opinion is between knowledge and ignorance."

 

Also check:

https://axiom1b.blogspot.com/2024/07/citat-av-platon-folk-ar-som-jord.html

and:

Plato on Democracy (youtube.com)

 

Interview | Philippe Nemo

Ignorance is spreading in schools

 Philippe Nemo is a French philosopher who has written a series of works on Western philosophy and about how French education has come to decline in quality. He is now writing a book in which he compares the education systems in different countries and has recently visited Sweden and Lund to meet principals and teachers at several schools. His views are interesting in Sweden because he points to organization, pedagogy and teacher training as the problems in the school - not the profits of independent schools.

 He also underlines that there is no guarantee of quality with schools run under public auspices. In other words, he gives different perspectives than those we hear in Swedish debate, when he answers my questions.

 Nemo first wants to say that France has a very old and very rich intellectual, scientific and cultural tradition, which is not easily destroyed. Now, however, for three or four decades, the french educational system has been down graded.

 The young are the first victims. There are a couple of famous schools that can be seen as islands of resistance, but they can be overwhelmed by the spreading ignorance.

 It is not the wishes of parents and employers that the politicians followed when they introduced the French primary school, but a desire to have control, says Nemo. Primary school in France means, as in Sweden, that all students read according to the same curriculum at the same pace until the age of 16, and despite criticism similar to that heard in Sweden, no change takes place.

 In France, the Ministry of Education manages 1.3 million employees, most of whom are teachers. These have a strong position as state employees and they are represented by strong trade unions. The huge education bureaucracy is almost impossible to control.

 Ministers have no real authority over the school. If he or she takes the slightest initiative that the unions don't like, the minister will be short-lived. The state's monopoly is also combined with the "school map", which means that students are referred to the nearest school. Parents thus have very little say.

 You can say that the teachers are stuck in the state's net. The state trains them, recruits them, pays them and insists on its type of pedagogy. Teachers cannot get a better job by doing a good job. It is a situation similar to the one that led to stagnation in the Soviet Union. There are idealistic teachers who are passionately interested in their subject and who do their utmost for the students, but they have no influence on the education policy of the country. Is there an equivalent to Swedish independent schools?

 Yes, says Nemo, and the equivalent is called “contract schools”, and these are mainly Catholic. They are called that because they have a contract with the state. In France as in Sweden, schools are paid for with public funds. Contract schools have been a safety valve, and without them there would have been an explosion. They are now superior to the public schools in everything. They have more effective pedagogy, more order and order and offer physical and psychological security for the students. Even most socialist ministers and MPs want to send their children to contract schools, and yet it is they who have created today's state school. The French left, if it were honest, should immediately include in its program that there should be more contract schools.

 According to a survey, 40 percent of all French families want to send their children to such schools, but the unions do not allow the number of contract schools to exceed 18 percent. Thus long waiting lists arise to get a place in such a school. The big difference between contract schools and independent schools is that in France it is the school that receives support, while in Sweden the support follows the student.

 In France, there is no predetermined amount either. The fact that contract schools are popular does not mean that money is taken from state schools. However, each contract school is an additional cost, so there is an economic argument for keeping the number low. The French unions would call a giant strike if France adopted Sweden's rule that funding follows the student, a rule based on common sense, says Nemo.

 Why is pedagogy so political? According to Nemo, the official pedagogy, the one supported by the Ministry of Education, is not a science. It consists of a number of procedures invented to make elementary school work. When you put all young people of a certain age in the same class, intellectually "heterogeneous" groups arise. In such groups you cannot give regular lessons. One therefore needs to come up with different methods such as group work, discussions, video viewing and study visits so that everyone can participate and no one feels excluded.

 This is a hope that is ideological in the sense that the intention is to enable the equal school and has been given the name pedagogy. The idea of ​​using the school to transform society is a left-wing project and has become a kind of religion.

 In France, there is no other official pedagogy. Nemo is worried about the future of Europe. He sees that the quality of public education systems has declined in several countries in Europe. In today's world, non-European countries are becoming increasingly important, especially the Asian ones. He has had the opportunity to visit schools in Japan and South Korea and has been able to observe that education there is treated much more serious. It is clear that Europe needs to become more ambitious in its school and university policy. Nemo warns: If we do not accept that challenge, China and other superpowers will sooner or later gain power over us.

Philippe Nemo Professor who teaches philosophy and history of ideas at the ESCP-EAP European School of Management in Paris

Todde

Also check: 

https://axiom1b.blogspot.com/2023/05/overpopulation-and-future-of-mankind.html