Population growth needs to be slowed down

  There is a widespread misconception that population growth is an insignificant problem compared to the climate threat. Both are already significant problems.

 The next few years will be crucial in the work to limit global warming and stop the depletion of vital ecosystems. If greenhouse gas emissions are not reduced rapidly in Western countries, China, India and other nations with a prosperous middle class, the consequences, according to the IPCC and the UN, could be catastrophic. The responsibility lies primarily with us in the rich world. We got the favor of using the stored solar energy that has accumulated over hundreds of millions of years for a few centuries. Our civilization is fed by this "free lunch".

 We are now beginning to see the consequences: thawing permafrost and polar ice caps, rising sea levels, extreme weather, giant forest fires, dehydrated crops, food and water shortages, extinction of species' habitat, extinction. More hidden, another "challenge" is growing: the world's population growth, from 3 billion in 1960 via today's 7.8 to about 11 billion in 2100 according to the UN forecast. More and more people in poor countries are being hit hard by climate change in combination with a rapidly growing population.

 Malnutrition has been declining until recently, but where the number of people is increasing more than food, it is growing again. The FAO and this year's Peace Prize winner, the World Food Program, find that 690 million (approximately 9 percent) were malnourished in 2019, and estimate that they will be 840 million by 2030. The worst situation is in Africa. Despite the fact that many Africans have a better economy, the number of malnourished people has been increasing since 2014 and is now 250 million. If the trend continues, every fourth African will be affected by 2030.

 To stop humanitarian disasters, the supply of food needs to increase and birth rates decrease significantly (today 4.5 children per woman in Africa). Otherwise, the same mistakes as with global warming threaten - passivity that causes increasing future suffering and damage. Do we in the rich world at all want to understand what is happening? Rosling's bestseller "Factfulness" shows that the proportion of malnourished has decreased steadily since 1970. But that the number of malnourished suffering people is increasing is not mentioned. The number has grown every year since 2014, and in 2019 the proportion of malnourished people also increased.

 The Global Challenges Foundation recently found among ten countries that Swedes were most negative about the global population increase. But unlike climate change, population growth is rarely discussed in the media and is almost entirely avoided by environmental organizations. Why this lack of interest in one of the root causes of the rapidly growing imbalance between man and the environment?

 With a smaller population in rich countries, consumption, greenhouse gases and heating would of course also have been less. The IPCC wrote in 2014 that “economic and population growth continue to be the most important drivers of increases in CO₂ emissions”. 

 Influential European opinion leaders believes that rich racist Westerners are trying to blame climate change for the third world population increase, in order to avoid lowering their own unsustainable consumption (Guardian 26/8 2020). This may be the case in some circles; all attempts to evade responsibility and blame the poor of the third world must, of course, be rejected. But to claim, like many "progressives", that the fears of population growth are exaggerated is a fatal mistake, for several reasons.

 The UN's forecast from 2019 for the world's population until the year 2100 - Africa accounts for most of the increase. It is claimed that population growth is not a major problem from a climate or ecological point of view, as the ecological footprint of the poor is small. In itself true, but the goal is that every child born gets a decent standard of living, and then water, energy, farmland, housing and more are required, which means that the footprint increases over time. This is happening in many developing countries, and therefore measures to strengthen the economies of these countries must be paired with efforts to limit population growth.

 The reasons are mainly two. On the one hand, the risk of increased malnutrition. If Africa's population grows from today's 1.3 to 4 billion, it will have dramatic consequences. It is hardly possible to increase food production in proportion to such an increase in population. Malnutrition has been growing steadily in Africa for six years (FAO). No new green revolution is in sight. Poverty, malnutrition and hunger therefore threaten a growing part of Africa's population if it continues to increase as the UN predicts. Already large climate-driven migration will then be even greater through population growth.

 On the one hand, there is also the risk of an uncontrolled increase in greenhouse gases, from the large part of the population whose standard of living is increasing. The rich world should therefore now sharply increase its efforts to help African nations, and above all its women, achieve the reduction in birth rates that many of the countries are striving for according to the UN (see Population Facts No 2017/10). A major problem is that many women lack or are prevented from using modern contraceptives.

 Correcting the shortage is not a particularly expensive effort but can quickly contribute to lower birth rates. Smaller cohorts also strengthen the economies of poor countries as the proportion of children decreases relative to working adults, more women can take part in working life, the fewer children can receive longer and better education and so on. Self-determination and education for women are important and deserve strong support, but it is equally important to quickly increase support for modern contraception, counseling and family planning, where increased Swedish development assistance could make a big difference. Stopping population growth is therefore beneficial for African and other poor countries. Many of today's problems are due more to population growth than to climate change. For example, contact with new viruses, and extinction of species as population growth leads to food shortages, deforestation, more agriculture, hunting and fishing.

 To stop the climate crisis and the impoverishment of biodiversity, measures are needed both against population growth and against the waste of resources among the world's middle and upper classes.

 Reports on the earth's development and measures to solve the challenges must be more balanced, by paying attention to the consequences of population growth and the great need for family planning in Africa, among other places.

 Malte Andersson ecologist, professor emeritus at the University of Gothenburg (GU)

 Frank Götmark professor of ecology at GU, researches population growth

 Anders Wijkman, honorary chairman of the Club of Rome article writers, participates in the network Population Matters Sweden

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