Population
growth needs to be slowed down
There is a widespread misconception that
population growth is an insignificant problem compared to the climate threat.
Both are already significant problems.
The next few years
will be crucial in the work to limit global warming and stop the depletion of
vital ecosystems. If greenhouse gas emissions are not reduced rapidly in
Western countries, China, India and other nations with a prosperous middle
class, the consequences, according to the IPCC and the UN, could be
catastrophic. The responsibility lies primarily with us in the rich world. We
got the favor of using the stored solar energy that has accumulated over
hundreds of millions of years for a few centuries. Our civilization is fed by this "free lunch".
We are now beginning
to see the consequences: thawing permafrost and polar ice caps, rising sea
levels, extreme weather, giant forest fires, dehydrated crops, food and water
shortages, extinction of species' habitat, extinction. More hidden, another "challenge" is growing:
the world's population growth, from 3 billion in 1960 via today's 7.8 to about
11 billion in 2100 according to the UN forecast. More and more people in
poor countries are being hit hard by climate change in combination with a
rapidly growing population.
Malnutrition has been
declining until recently, but where the number of people is increasing more
than food, it is growing again. The FAO and this year's Peace Prize winner, the
World Food Program, find that 690 million (approximately 9 percent) were
malnourished in 2019, and estimate that they will be 840 million by 2030. The
worst situation is in Africa. Despite the fact that many Africans have a better
economy, the number of malnourished people has been increasing since 2014 and
is now 250 million. If the trend continues, every fourth African will be
affected by 2030.
To stop humanitarian
disasters, the supply of food needs to increase and birth rates decrease
significantly (today 4.5 children per woman in Africa). Otherwise, the same
mistakes as with global warming threaten - passivity that causes increasing
future suffering and damage. Do we in the rich world at all want to understand
what is happening? Rosling's bestseller "Factfulness" shows that the
proportion of malnourished has decreased steadily since 1970. But that the number of malnourished suffering people
is increasing is not mentioned. The number has grown every year since 2014,
and in 2019 the proportion of malnourished people also increased.
The Global Challenges
Foundation recently found among ten countries that Swedes were most negative
about the global population increase. But unlike climate change, population growth is rarely discussed in
the media and is almost entirely avoided by environmental organizations. Why
this lack of interest in one of the root causes of the rapidly growing
imbalance between man and the environment?
With a smaller
population in rich countries, consumption, greenhouse gases and heating would
of course also have been less. The IPCC wrote in 2014 that “economic and population growth continue to be the most important
drivers of increases in CO2 emissions”.
Influential
European opinion leaders believes that rich racist Westerners are trying to
blame climate change for the third world population increase, in order to avoid
lowering their own unsustainable consumption (Guardian 26/8 2020). This may be
the case in some circles; all attempts to evade responsibility and blame the
poor of the third world must, of course, be rejected. But to claim, like many "progressives", that the fears of
population growth are exaggerated is a fatal mistake, for several reasons.
The UN's forecast
from 2019 for the world's population until the year 2100 - Africa accounts for most of the increase. It is claimed that
population growth is not a major problem from a climate or ecological point of
view, as the ecological footprint of the poor is small. In itself true, but the
goal is that every child born gets a decent standard of living, and then water,
energy, farmland, housing and more are required, which means that the footprint
increases over time. This is happening in many developing countries, and
therefore measures to strengthen the
economies of these countries must be paired with efforts to limit population
growth.
The reasons are
mainly two. On the one hand, the risk of increased malnutrition. If Africa's population grows from today's
1.3 to 4 billion, it will have dramatic consequences. It is hardly possible
to increase food production in proportion to such an increase in population.
Malnutrition has been growing steadily in Africa for six years (FAO). No new
green revolution is in sight. Poverty, malnutrition and hunger therefore
threaten a growing part of Africa's population if it continues to increase as
the UN predicts. Already large
climate-driven migration will then be even greater through population growth.
On the one hand,
there is also the risk of an uncontrolled increase in greenhouse gases, from
the large part of the population whose standard of living is increasing. The
rich world should therefore now sharply increase its efforts to help African
nations, and above all its women, achieve the reduction in birth rates that
many of the countries are striving for according to the UN (see Population
Facts No 2017/10). A major problem is that many women lack or are prevented
from using modern contraceptives.
Correcting the
shortage is not a particularly expensive effort but can quickly contribute to
lower birth rates. Smaller cohorts also strengthen the economies of poor
countries as the proportion of children decreases relative to working adults,
more women can take part in working life, the fewer children can receive longer
and better education and so on. Self-determination and education for women are
important and deserve strong support, but it is equally important to quickly
increase support for modern contraception, counseling and family planning,
where increased Swedish development assistance could make a big difference.
Stopping population growth is therefore beneficial for African and other poor
countries. Many of today's problems are
due more to population growth than to climate change. For example, contact
with new viruses, and extinction of species as population growth leads to food
shortages, deforestation, more agriculture, hunting and fishing.
To stop the climate
crisis and the impoverishment of biodiversity, measures are needed both against
population growth and against the waste of resources among the world's middle
and upper classes.
Reports on the
earth's development and measures to solve the challenges must be more balanced,
by paying attention to the consequences of population growth and the great need
for family planning in Africa, among other places.
Malte Andersson
ecologist, professor emeritus at the University of Gothenburg (GU)
Frank Götmark
professor of ecology at GU, researches population growth
Anders Wijkman,
honorary chairman of the Club of Rome article writers, participates in the
network Population Matters Sweden
Todde
Check: http://axiom1b.blogspot.com/2019/02/philosophybuddhism-truth-and.html
